Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
